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Market News

  • Canadian Softwood Tariffs: Who Benefits, Who Pays More? July 21, 2017

    Canadian Softwood Tariffs: Who Benefits, Who Pays More?

     
    Both the U.S. and Canada produce lumber products and have had disagreements over lumber since the 1800s. We have traded wood products in both directions with and without tariffs. Previous administrations have implemented duties and tariffs, NAFTA plays a role too, and the World Trade Organization (WTO) has ruled “no damages” to the U.S. in previous legal challenges.

  • B.C. remains under a state of emergency Thursday as 188 wildfires burn across the province. July 14, 2017

    B.C. remains under a state of emergency Thursday as 188 wildfires burn across the province.

  • Opinion 7/7 - (discount to cash) July 7, 2017

    Good Morning,
     
    September futures took a hit yesterday early as the lack of volume allowed a sharp break. The futures and cash don't seem to be on the same path as the cash business is good. I'm not sure that all the information going back and forth with the SLA isn't keeping it negative down here. I think the sharp break yesterday put futures at too great of a discount to cash and that is why it recovered. This looks like May futures when it was trading at a deep discount without any interest only to close the gap the last day.
     
    Technically, the futures continue to run along a negative pattern formation. 
     
    Brian V. Leonard
    888-800-3543
    Leonard Commodities Inc.

  • Opinion 7/5 - (futures market rallied about $15 this week ) July 5, 2017

    Leonard Commodities Inc.                                                        7/02/17
    Market:
    The futures market rallied about $15 this week after a lower than expected dumping number came out. If you asked a week before if a lower number would rally the market and I would of said no. I think just a number coming out defined was enough for traders to go back to business. It had been numerous weeks since any activity had taken place so the market was ripe for a buy round and that’s what we saw. I’m not sure how much the end of the month or quarter or long holiday, played into the business. Most of the conversation all week was should I jump in and not I have to jump in. That always makes it hard to gauge what is in front of us. All in all, it was a very health week for the producers and the industry as a whole.
    Technical:
    September
    September spent over 35 sessions between $380 and $400 with a few spikes in between. It has been between $340 and $360 for 30 sessions. That means that this market likes to trade in a narrow range for a long period of time. The other point is that this week’s run up took us from the bottom to the top of the range, but did little else. From $370 to $380 there is little resistance and a light volume area. With a 55% RSI September could easily pop itself back up to the 380-trading range. The question now becomes if there is value owning September futures that will deliver in October at $380 or higher?
     
    Summary:
    There doesn’t seem to be any news out there left that could disrupt production or price. That puts us back into the old fashion supply/demand mode. We are currently in the middle of a good buy round after a very long dry spell. Most will tell you that the last week of June made the month. It looks like the first week of May made the month before. There is a very wide gap in buy rounds this time. Generally speaking, that could be an indicator of slowing demand. If we overlay that on the starts reports it ends up a sound hypothesis. I have a group in the industry that haven’t had a slow moment in 2.5 years. So, when they read this they call wondering what I am looking at. I have mentioned a few times about the new invisible hand or VMI contracts. They are a way for the producers to keep prices artificially high while allowing those with VMI’s to brag about their 1% no sweat margins. Kind of makes me wonder sometime, but that’s for another day. What it is doing is keeping a larger of the market place fluid. It’s hard to gauge from a distance, but leads to some tremendous upside when there is a pickup in business.
    Watch for September to try to press higher. It won’t stay in the 370’s very long. It will run right up into the $380’s. Personally, I don’t see it without the funds and there are neutral.
    Brian


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